The Age of Abundance:
AI and Robotic, the End of Work as We Know It.
No matter what you do for a living, AI and intelligent robots will increasingly take over human tasks. They will perform these tasks better, faster, and cheaper. This applies to you too.
Many people will work much less or not at all in traditional jobs, leading to decreased or even nonexistent income.
How will your colleagues and employees live?
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| A global summit on the future of work in the age of AI. |
Will we all simply become robot coaches, or how will we earn a living and ensure the survival of businesses?
This is the central question facing our time.
1: The Inevitability of AI and Robotics
Join us on a journey into the future. We will explore three possible scenarios for the future world of life and economics where AI and robots work extensively for us. Our future could be a utopia: a life of the highest quality without work stress, with ample time for family, friends, and hobbies.
However, a very different reality is also possible. We could awaken to a horrifying scenario. Why? Firstly, humans are notoriously short-sighted and lack foresight when it comes to the future. Secondly, a fundamental and catastrophic flaw exists within our economic system, which could lead to a disastrous outcome in a world dominated by AI and robotics. Correcting this flaw is our greatest challenge.
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| The Inevitability of AI and Robotics |
What does the future with AI and humanoid robots look like? In recent months, I have published several articles on the future of AI and intelligent humanoid robots. You can find the links to these articles in the description below.
Here's a brief summary:
- AI's Intellectual Supremacy: Within a few years, AI will surpass the intellectual capabilities of almost all humans. Most players in the AI world agree that this is imminent.
- The Rise of Humanoid Robots: Humanoid robots will quickly surpass the physical abilities of all humans. They will move with more grace than Olympic athletes and possess the dexterity of the world's best surgeons. Their greatest advantage lies in their versatility, as they are modeled after the human body.
- The Robot Workforce: Your robot will maintain your garden, cook your dinner, iron your laundry, and even play with your children, telling them personalized bedtime stories. All this without vacations, sick leave, bad days, or the distractions that often plague human workers.
- Superhuman Intelligence: Humanoid robots, powered by AI brains, will possess superhuman intelligence. They can think, communicate, learn, and even be creative. This is no longer science fiction. Within a year or two, we will witness thousands of these robots in factories. Later, this number will reach millions and even billions.
- Unbeatable Costs: The cost of employing humanoid robots will be incredibly low and unrivaled. As detailed in my latest article (also linked in the description), the initial cost per hour will be around €14, then €10, and eventually less than €5. They operate without complaining about working hours, union demands, or the need for therapy to address low self-esteem. This leaves companies no choice but to adopt humanoid robots to stay competitive.
AI not only increases efficiency but also significantly boosts productivity. This has the potential to significantly improve quality of life and prosperity. Initially, intelligent robots will address the labor shortage, as we face a global workforce deficit of up to 100 million by 2030. In many developed countries, this labor shortage is likely to disappear entirely.
However, the emergence of new jobs and tasks to compensate for the displaced workforce will not occur as rapidly as in previous historical periods. This is due to the incredibly fast pace of AI development and the fact that new jobs themselves will often be supported by AI.
In the long term, most people will earn significantly less or no income at all from traditional employment. If you have no income, you cannot afford food or pay your bills. This could lead to a devastating downward spiral.
2: The Economic Consequences
What happens to incomes in an AI and robotics economy?
What are the consequences of AI and robotics within our current economic system if we fail to adapt?
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| The Economic Consequences |
Your income typically stems from one or more of the following sources:
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Employment: You earn a salary as an employee or fees as a self-employed individual. In the medium to long term, up to 80% of today's tasks performed by working people will disappear. While new tasks will emerge, their impact on self-employed individuals will be less pronounced, as many self-employed individuals are more adaptable and can more easily find and develop new areas of activity than employees within a company. A portion of the working population will experience higher incomes than today, particularly in roles that require exceptionally high and uniquely human qualifications, such as highly strategic software developers, top consultants, or top executives.
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Entrepreneurship: You generate profit from entrepreneurial activities. If the income of the general population declines significantly, consumer spending will decrease. This will lead to a drastic drop in sales and profits for businesses, resulting in widespread bankruptcies. Even for companies that provide highly specialized services, prices will rise if they rely heavily on highly skilled human labor. New business areas will emerge within the AI and robotics sector and beyond. However, in the future, AI and robotics will likely drive every business sector.
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Ownership of Productive Assets: You earn income from investments, such as the appreciation of company shares or income from rents and licenses. Those who own productive assets rely on the existence of customers, tenants, lessees, and licensees. If their income collapses, so too will your income. Shares in companies, whether held directly or through stock ownership, will lose value dramatically. This will also impact private retirement savings. Real estate values will also plummet if rents can no longer be paid. Selling such properties would result in catastrophic losses.
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Ownership of Unproductive Assets: You earn income from the appreciation of unproductive assets, such as raw materials, art, or cryptocurrencies, or through interest on deposits or granted loans. I consider money as an unproductive asset because interest at best compensates for inflation. Unproductive assets also lose value when demand decreases significantly. The prices of raw materials, art, and likely cryptocurrencies will also collapse. However, monetary assets may become more advantageous as prices fall sharply.
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Non-Performing Income: You receive non-performing income, such as pensions, maintenance payments, transfer payments like basic income or housing allowance, or access to free services like education. Non-performing income and services can only be provided if the state has sufficient revenue. In many countries, pensions are funded by contributions from the currently employed population. If their income collapses, so too will pension payments, as pension insurance is not a true insurance mechanism. The state will then lack the necessary tax revenue for top-ups. The state will also lack the tax revenue for social payments such as basic income, housing allowance, and child benefit. This will also impact the ability of maintenance obligors to pay.
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Price Effect: While not a direct income source, the price level determines the purchasing power of your income, i.e., how much you can afford. The only significant positive factor is the price effect. In a world with AI and robotics, if the majority of incomes collapse, consumer demand will decrease, leading to a surplus of products and services. This will cause prices to fall, which partially offsets income losses, though not entirely.
How could this impact the economy and society? Let's consider three possible scenarios for the next 10 to 20 years. You can already start thinking about which scenario you believe is most likely.
3: The Three Scenarios
How might the future unfold? Let's consider three possible scenarios for the next 10 to 20 years.
- The Horror Scenario: This scenario will become a reality if we fail to address the challenges posed by AI and robotics and rethink work and income. In the horror scenario, incomes and wealth plummet significantly. Falling prices will not be sufficient to compensate for these losses. Government tax revenue will drastically decrease within a few years, leading to unprecedented levels of poverty.
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| The Three Scenarios |
Initially, governments will attempt to mask the crisis with costly measures, further exacerbating the situation. A "every man for himself" mentality will prevail, with extremism and conspiracy theories gaining significant traction. Individuals will be scapegoated and persecuted. We may regress into a primitive, "every man for himself" society.
Citizens may elect radical parties to parliamentary majorities or even resort to violent revolution. Totalitarian regimes and strong leaders will reassert control. In some countries, this might manifest as left-wing fascism, while in others, it could take the form of right-wing fascism or communism. Freedom will be suppressed, and all aspects of life will be subject to strict control. Products and services will be rationed and allocated by the government. The government will dictate what companies produce and at what price. As often happens, a particular group of people will be blamed for the catastrophe and subjected to both political and social persecution.
What are your thoughts on this horror scenario? Do you find it frightening? Do you believe it's a plausible outcome? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
While this scenario is possible, it is unlikely to occur overnight. However, it can unfold more rapidly than we might anticipate if we act foolishly, irrationally, and too little, too late.
History provides examples of such societal collapses. In the early 19th century, textile workers, known as Luddites, attempted to halt industrialization and the loss of their jobs by destroying factories and machinery. This led to a series of revolutions across Europe over the following 30 years, including in France, Germany, and Italy. These were deeply painful and life-threatening decades.
I believe this horror scenario is possible, though not inevitable. Most countries will likely take some action, but probably too late and insufficiently. Governments, like all humans, tend to be short-sighted and often act in a manner that lacks foresight. For example, a German political party in the 1980s refused to use computers in their parliamentary offices, dismissing them as instruments of imperialist exploitation.
We will also be unable to prevent the rapid development and widespread adoption of AI and intelligent robots. Their benefits are too significant, and their costs too low. Even if we attempted to coordinate such a halt, it would be impossible. For instance, we cannot convince the Chinese to forgo the development of superior AI and robotics, as they prioritize economic strength and must address their declining population.
We cannot stop this transformation, and indeed, attempting to do so would likely be detrimental to us all. As mentioned earlier, sooner or later, AI and robotics will improve the lives of everyone.
- The Crisis Scenario: The crisis scenario is less severe than the horror scenario but still far from ideal. It represents a difficult but not entirely catastrophic outcome. However, it falls significantly short of the utopia scenario.
This scenario will unfold if states and economies fail to effectively address the challenges posed by AI and robotics. While they may avert the horror scenario, a significant decline is inevitable. Many nations will act too slowly and remain too divided to take decisive action. They will attempt to muddle through, but this will lead to stagnation, impoverishing their citizens.
- The Utopia Scenario: The utopia scenario signifies a massive improvement in quality of life for all people worldwide. This can become a reality, but it requires us to address a critical flaw in our economic system.
Next, we will explore the path to this utopia scenario and discuss how to ensure that the benefits of AI and robotics are shared by all. I hope to gain a clearer understanding of the potential future scenarios that lie ahead.
4: The Path to a Brighter Future
The utopia scenario signifies a massive improvement in quality of life for all people worldwide. This can become a reality, but it requires us to address a critical flaw in our economic system.
Our current economic system is primarily structured around the premise that over 90% of people must sell their intellectual and physical labor as employees to earn an income. They are almost exclusively paid based on the time they work, receiving a monthly salary.
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| The Path to a Brighter Future |
In contrast, business owners have the ability to replace the labor of their employees with AI and robots. In fact, they are compelled to do so to remain competitive with rivals in countries like China. However, employees typically lack this same ability. They could only achieve this if they were paid based on their productivity, including the utilization of AI and robotics, or even better, if they became part-owners or shareholders in the companies they work for.
For an AI and robotics-driven economy to enhance the quality of life and prosperity for all, we must ensure that the benefits of increased efficiency and productivity are shared equitably among all members of society. This can be achieved by enabling as many people as possible to become owners of productive assets.
How can we achieve this? We will explore this in detail in the next Part.
The high efficiency of AI and robotics dramatically lowers living costs. A one-kilometer ride in a robotaxi might cost only 20 cents, significantly cheaper than public transportation. A luxury coffee at Starbucks could potentially cost just 50 cents. The prices of most products and services are largely determined by the salaries of the people who produce them. As AI and robots become more efficient and cost-effective than humans, many of these labor costs will disappear.
AI and robotics will not only make us more efficient but also far more productive. Productivity refers to our ability to create greater value with the same resources and time. History has repeatedly demonstrated this potential. The quality of life enjoyed by most of us today would have been unimaginable for people living just 100 years ago. The potential for increased productivity far surpasses the potential for increased efficiency in our current system.
While we have limited capacity for saving, we possess immense potential for expansion. The innovative power significantly amplified by AI will help us solve critical global challenges. AI systems like Google DeepMind's have already developed 380,000 new materials within a matter of weeks – a feat that would have taken humans hundreds of years without AI. We will develop new energy systems, making sources like geothermal energy more accessible and significantly improving solar cell efficiency. Energy will become affordable and sustainable. We may even discover effective ways to mitigate and reverse the human impact on the climate.
Countless new professions, jobs, and business sectors will emerge. AI and robots will automate processes, but new human tasks will primarily focus on direct service to others. We can dedicate more time and attention to caring for one another.
If we can successfully navigate the transition from our current economic system to a new, future-oriented one, people worldwide will live in optimal health and abundance. When people live in abundance, we also have a greater chance of achieving lasting peace, as wars and conflicts are often driven by the scarcity of resources.
We have a historic opportunity to create a life of prosperity and well-being for all people, similar to the lifestyle enjoyed by the super-rich today, but without harming the biosphere or exploiting others. It may sound too good to be true, but it is entirely possible.
Quality of life is the only thing that should continuously grow. To achieve this, we must not constantly consume more resources, damage the environment, and increase our stress levels. AI and robotics are designed to help us achieve this.
In the long term, every nation, every society, and every individual can live in abundance. This is the beauty and promise of AI and robotics.
However, based on past experiences with the short-sighted behavior of many governments and even voters, only a portion of nations will successfully guide their citizens towards the utopia scenario, preventing them from falling into the abyss of the horror scenario.
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| the crisis scenario, followed by the horror scenario |
In Conclusion:
The unprecedented changes we are facing are not science fiction; they are already underway. We may even experience all three scenarios sequentially: the crisis scenario, followed by the horror scenario, and finally, the utopia scenario, if governments, businesses, and individuals act decisively.
Consider what you can do today to prepare for these changes and even benefit from them. We will explore this further in subsequent articles.
The opportunity to create a world of abundance for all people through AI and robotics is within reach. To achieve this, we must transform our economic system to ensure that everyone benefits from the advancements. This will not be a transition towards socialism. The future economic system will not be characterized by scarcity, limitations, and the redistribution of wealth.
On the contrary, it will be a system of unparalleled freedom and quality of life. We will explore this concept in greater detail in the next Part.
Share this article with your friends and family. This topic is far too important for too few people to be aware of it.
The profound impact of AI and robotics on the future of work. We delve into the inevitability of these technologies, analyze their economic consequences, consider different future scenarios, and ultimately, discuss the path towards a brighter future where humans and machines can coexist and thrive.